Understanding Scotland economy tracker August 2023

This event launched the latest findings in our quarterly research series. Our regular survey with the Diffley Partnership helps us to understand and monitor changes in economic attitudes and public opinion over time.

The recent data have shown that skipping meals and cutting down on portion sizes have consistently been coping strategies for up to a quarter of Scottish households as the cost of living has risen.

In this session, Mark Diffley presented the latest tracker results and then we will reflect on the long term implications of the data by asking: is this household response to financial stress a long-term risk to public health and the economy?

To help us explore this question, Kate Elliot, from Rathbone Greenbank Investments, will join us. Her team led the creation of the Investor Coalition on Food Policy - a group of 23 investors representing over £6 trillion in assets under management. The work analyses the systemic risks and compelling business case for investors to include the negative impact of poor dietary health on the workforce and economic growth. 

Mark and Kate were joined by Pete Ritchie, Executive Director of Nourish Scotland. Pete will reflect on the new data from his perspective after many years experience of working to bring change towards a healthier, more sustainable food system.

In the light of recent reports that the average height of UK five year olds is slipping behind other European nations and established evidence that poor diets contribute to four out of the top five risk factors for early death, ill health and disability in Scotland we felt the time is right to ask what action business and policy-makers can take to help avert another growing crisis.

Watch the event recording

Read the research insights

Shattered Nation: how to save Britain from becoming a failed state

Past event: 23rd August 2023

What needs to be done to stop Britain becoming a failed state and is Scotland providing some answers?

Professor Danny Dorling, the Halford Mackinder Professor of Geography at University of Oxford joined us in Edinburgh to preview his new book “Shattered Nation: Inequality and the Geography of a Failing State".

This event explored how Britain lost its role as Europe’s leading economy, made itself one of the most unequal countries and whether policies such as the Scottish Child Payment, universal free school meals and the absence of university tuition fees in Scotland are preventing things getting worse.

In "Shattered Nation," Dorling discusses the need for progressive plans for change to help us tackle inequality, social and political polarisation as well as the economic challenges and repeated crises that have left so many struggling to afford decent housing and the basics of a good life.

The session was chaired by Assa Samaké-Roman, a journalist and newspaper columnist from France who lives in Edinburgh. Assa covers Scotland's politics, culture and society for the French-speaking media (Radio France Internationale, Radio-Télévision Suisse, Le Figaro, Politis). She is also the co-founder and editor of La Revue Écossaise, a new francophone magazine about Scotland's ideas, culture, history and politics.

This event was supported by News Direct.

Scotland's land information system: what is it and why it matters

Past event: 8th March 2023

Scotland’s land information system: what is it and why it matters

On Wednesday 8th March 2023 the David Hume Institute and Built Environment Forum Scotland hosted a webinar to discuss a new report about Scotland’s land information system, written by land reform expert Andy Wightman.

Andy Wightman, writer, researcher and former member of the Scottish Parliament was joined by Professor Stewart Brymer, solicitor and Honorary Professor in law at the University of Dundee to discuss why the lack of a fully functioning land and building information system is holding Scotland back. The event was chaired by Ailsa Macfarlane, Director of the Built Environment Forum Scotland.

Information about land is used everyday by businesses, policy-makers, academics and ordinary citizens. This information ranges from land ownership to valuation, from energy efficiency ratings to building types and from vegetation cover to flood risks.

All of this information exists in some form, however much of it is not easily available and virtually none of it is made available in an integrated form. As the impacts of climate change intensify, there is even greater need for more timely, more comprehensive and more accessible information about land and buildings in Scotland.

Talking Tax with Dr Arun Advani, Dr Andrew Summers and Charlotte Barbour

The authors of recently published research discussed their findings with Charlotte Barbour, Director of Tax for ICAS and Susan Murray, Director of the David Hume Institute to reflect on the implications for Scotland.

The researchers from LSE and Warwick presented new findings from analysing anonymised HMRC data of the taxes paid by the UK's top 1% and explored the relationship of headline tax rates with capital gains, total income and tax reliefs. They suggested putting a floor on the lowest tax rates with an Alternative Minimum Tax.

ICAS has called for more "honest public debate about who should pay tax and how much they should pay". Often in Scotland discussion on tax focuses only on the powers at Holyrood. However this research shows when considering total income, there is a complex relationship of different tax rates for people that are able to restructure their earnings.

As the post Corona virus economy emerges, focus will undoubtedly turn to tax and paying for public services. This session was an honest conversation to think about the complex interplay of rates and reliefs. Should a post-pandemic UK consider an alternative minimum tax threshold?

Click here to download the presentation slides.

Michael Anderson and Graeme Roy on Scotland's Populations

Professors Michael Anderson and Graeme Roy spoke at the David Hume Institute on “Scotland’s Populations”. They discussed how our demographics have shaped our country, and the challenges they present in the future. 

Professor Michael Anderson is Emeritus Professor of Economic History, University of Edinburgh, and an expert on Scottish demography. Last year, Oxford University Press published ‘Scotland's Populations: from the 1850s to Today’, which explores population growth and decline, rural settlement and depopulation, and migration and emigration.  

Professor Graeme Roy is Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Head of Economics at the University of Strathclyde. Prior to joining Strathclyde University he was head of the First Minister’s Policy Unit. 

A copy of the slides from each presentation is available for download here:

Please see below for the audio recording of this event.

Jonathan Portes on Immigration policy: challenges for the UK and Scotland

Professor Jonathan Portes spoke at the David Hume Institute on “Immigration policy: challenges for the UK and Scotland”.

Professor Jonathan Portes is a Senior Fellow of the Economic and Social Research Council's "UK in a Changing Europe" initiative, based at King’s College London, which promotes high quality research into the complex and changing relationship between the UK and the European Union. His current research concentrates on issues related to immigration and labour mobility, both within the European Union and outside; and the economic implications of Brexit. Jonathan's latest book is called 'What Do we Know and What Should We Do About Immigration?'.

He has spent most of his career working as a civil servant, serving as Chief Economist at the Department for Work and Pensions from 2002 to 2008 and Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He led the Cabinet Office’s economic analysis and economic policy work during the financial crisis and on the G20 London Summit in April 2009. From 2011 to 2015, he was Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

A copy of the slides from Jonathan’s presentation is available for download here:

Philip Rycroft on Brexit and the Union: what next for Scotland in the UK?

Philip Rycroft, recently retired Permanent Secretary of DExEU, the Department for Exiting the European Union, gave a lecture at the David Hume Institute on “Brexit and the Union: what next for Scotland in the UK?”. 

Philip Rycroft worked at DExEU between March 2017 and March 2019, from October 2017 as Permanent Secretary. He was responsible for leading the department in all its work on the Government’s preparations for Brexit. From June 2015 to March 2019 he was head of the UK Governance Group in the Cabinet Office, with responsibility for advising ministers on all aspects of the constitution and devolution. 

The text of his lecture is available for download here:

Scotland's Evolving Fiscal Landscape

Dame Susan Rice, Robert Chote and Alyson Stafford spoke about how the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office of Budget Responsibility work both individually and together and the setting in which these institutions exist and operate.

Robert Chote has been Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility since 2010, having been reappointed for a second five-year term in 2015. He also chairs the OECD’s network of parliamentary budget offices and independent fiscal institutions, as well as the external advisory group of the Irish parliamentary budget office. Previously, Robert served as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies from 2002 to 2010, as a senior advisor at the International Monetary Fund from 1999 to 2002, as Economics Editor of the Financial Times from 1995 to 1999, and as a writer at the Independent and Independent on Sunday from 1990 to 1994. Robert is chair of the Royal Statistical Society’s advisory group on public data literacy. He is also a member of the Finance Committee of the University of Cambridge and the advisory committee of the ESRC Centre for Macroeconomics, and is a governor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

Dame Susan Rice DBE has been Chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission since 2014 and was reappointed for a further four years from July 2018. A Chartered Banker, Susan is, inter alia, Chairman of Scottish Water, President of the Scottish Council of Development and Industry, a non-executive director of J Sainsbury and the Banking Standards Board, and a lay member of Court of Edinburgh University. Susan is a published medical researcher and has previously served as senior Vice President at NatWest Bancorp in New York, dean at Yale and Colgate Universities, Chairman and Chief Executive of Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Managing Director of Lloyds Banking Group.

Alyson Stafford CBE is Director General Scottish Exchequer, with responsibility for the overall Scottish Budget including tax, spending and measuring performance, and for advice, support and systems on finance and procurement. Alyson joined the Scottish Government in 2005, previously serving as Director General Finance and Director of Finance. Prior to joining the Scottish Government, Alyson led strategic, operational and corporate services in the Health Service in England and Scotland as a Chief Executive and Director of Finance.

Willie Rennie: 2018 Politicians and Professionals Series

For our 2018 Politicians and Professionals Series we asked each of the  major Scottish Party Leaders to speak on the theme of ‘Scotland After Brexit’.

Richard Wyn Jones and Michael Keating on Welsh and Scottish perspectives on Brexit

Professors Richard Wyn Jones and Michael Keating considered the major challenges Brexit poses to the 1999 devolution settlements; the role of the devolved governments in negotiations; the allocation of competences currently shared with Europe, and related issues.

Richard Wyn Jones is Director of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and Michael Keating is Director of the Centre on Constitutional Change.

The event was chaired by Dame Mariot Leslie on 21 November 2017.