Professor Tim Congdon CBE (Lombard Street Research)

Professor Tim Congdon said: There are seven key dimensions of macro-economic policy that are pointing the EMU countries towards political union:

• That monetary union requires agreement on the size of budget deficits
•  That monetary unions requires agreement on the maturity profile of public debt 
• Distribution of seigniorage in multi-government monetary union creates a tension between the ECB and member governments 
• In a multi-government monetary union the distribution of the costs of deposit protection between governments is uncertain
•  In a multi-government monetary union, governments are unlikely to reach agreement on fiscal policy
•  Automatic fiscal transfers take place between regions to even out cyclical shocks to regional stability. In a multi-government monetary union, the absence of a unified fiscal policy prevents such transfers.
•  In a multi-government monetary union the central bank is not accountable to any single national legislature.

 Professor Brian Main, Director of The David Hume Institute said "It is hoped that this seminar will provide a platform for open and informed discussion concerning Economic and Monetary Union and whether political union is a prerequisite for it's success."

Professor Tim Congdon CBE, is Managing Director of Lombard Street Research. He is one of the City of London's leading economic commentators. A frequent contributor to the financial press, particularly The Times and The Daily Telegraph. Professor Congdon is non-executive director of two investment trusts and Highland Timber plc. In 1997 he was awarded the CBE for services to economic debate and in 2000 was elected a Fellow of the Society of Business Economists. Professor Congdon is also an Honorary Professor of Cardiff Business School and Visiting Professor at City University Business School.

1973-76 Economics staff, The Times

1976-80 Senior Economist, L. Messel & Co., stockbrokers

1980-85 Economics Partner, L. Messel & Co.

1986-88 Chief U.K. economist, Shearson Lehman Hutton

1989- Economic Adviser, Gerrard & National

1989- Managing Director, Lombard Street Research Ltd.

1992-97 Member of the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters ("The

Wise Men")

Notes to Editors:

The views that will be expressed by the speaker are his own and do not commit the Trustees or Officers of the Institute in any way.